us elections 2014 incumbents

us elections 2014 incumbents

With US Mid-Term Elections 9 Days Away – Incumbent Democrats Facing Serious Trouble

According to the law, the employer mandate for health care under the Affordable Care Act aka Obamacare should have taken effect as of January. However, five vulnerable senate democrats signed a letter addressed to then Health and Human Services (HHS) Secretary Kathleen Sebelius pleading with her to delay the employer mandate. The reason was simple: it is expected to cause millions of workers to lose their employer sponsored health care. In the end, President Obama delayed the law until after the 2014 mid-term elections in a bid for his party to retain control of the US Senate. The five Democrat senators, who all faced tough re-elections, were:

  1. Sen. Jeanne Shaheen of New Hampshire
  2. Sen. Mark Begich of Alaska
  3. Sen. Mark Pryor of Arkansas
  4. Sen. Mary Landrieu Louisiana
  5. Sen. Kay Hagan of North Carolina

Now, current polling suggests that the GOP will pick up at least 8 senate seats to control 52 of the 100 senate seats. This means that despite the president delaying implementation of a key aspect of his signature legislative accomplishment as a sop to his party, many of those expecting to benefit from his decision will lose their seats anyway. They are Sen. Begich of Alaska, Sen. Pryor of Arkansas, and Senator Landrieu of Louisiana. In addition, Democrat incumbent Sen. Mark Udall of Colorado is also expected to lose his seat. The other two Democrats who played politics with the Obamacare employer mandate are in statistical dead heats.

The open seat vacated by retiring Iowa Democrat senator Tom Harkin will likely flip to the GOP. The same holds true for the open Democrat senate seat in Montana vacated by Sen. Max Baucus. The GOP will handily pick up the open Democrat senate seat in West Virginia vacated by Sen. Jay Rockefeller. Polls are indicating that the open Democrat senate seat in South Dakota vacated by Sen. Tim Johnson may also go to the GOP, but it is still too close to call.

Reference material:
http://www.electionprojection.com/2014-elections/races/2014-senate-races.php
http://thehill.com/homenews/senate/188144-obamacare-gives-incumbent-democrats-jitters