recessionMorgan Stanley recession

Morgan Stanley has hiked the probability of a recession hitting the global economy within the next year to 30 percent from 20 percent.

The U.S. bank also cut its baseline forecast for world economic growth to 3.0 percent in 2016.

“While we don’t believe that a global recession is likely this year, the declining impact of lower oil prices and easier monetary policy on growth starts to worry us,” said Morgan Stanley economists led by Elga Bartsch in a report sent on Monday.

Morgan Stanley attributed the downgrade to a slowdown in developed market growth led by the U.S. It now forecasts that U.S. economic growth will slow to 1.7 percent this year and 1.6 percent next, from 2.4 percent in 2015.